The Gaza ceasefire and the US 20-point plan

The challenge

On 7 October 2023, the terrorist organisation Hamas led a brutal terrorist attack in Israel with other armed groups, involving deliberate murder of civilians and hostage-taking. According to Israeli government figures, about 1,200 people were killed and 251 were taken hostage to the Gaza Strip¹.

In the war that followed, at least 67,869 Palestinians were killed up to the ceasefire, 20,179 of them children, according to the Gaza Health Ministry¹. The ministry's count does not distinguish civilians from combatants; Israeli officials have questioned its reliability because Hamas controls the ministry, while the United Nations regards it as credible². In January 2026 a senior Israeli military officer was reported to have estimated the death toll at about 71,000; the military said this was not an official figure³.

About 78% of the buildings in the Strip were damaged or destroyed, and 468 Israeli soldiers were killed after the ground offensive began¹. Two earlier ceasefires, in November 2023 and January 2025, did not hold⁴.

The road there

1. 7 October 2023The Hamas-led brutal terrorist attack on southern Israel; the war in Gaza begins¹.
2. 18 January 2025A second ceasefire takes effect; it ends on 18 March, when Israel resumes fighting⁴.
3. 29 September 2025Donald Trump presents the 20-point plan at the White House, alongside Benjamin Netanyahu⁴.
4. 3 October 2025Hamas accepts parts of the plan: releasing all the hostages and handing the administration of the Strip to a Palestinian body⁴.
5. 8 October 2025After indirect talks in Sharm el-Sheikh, Trump announces that Israel and Hamas have agreed to the first phase⁴.
6. 10 October 2025The ceasefire takes effect; Israeli forces pull back to the "yellow line" and remain in about 53% of the Strip⁵.
7. 13 October 2025The 20 living hostages are released⁵. In Sharm el-Sheikh the leaders of the United States, Egypt, Qatar and Turkey sign a document guaranteeing the ceasefire⁶; Israel and Hamas do not sign it⁷.
8. 17 November 2025The Security Council adopts Resolution 2803 by 13 votes, with China and Russia abstaining⁸.
9. January 2026The United States announces the start of phase two; the Board of Peace and the National Committee for the Administration of Gaza are set up⁹. On 26 January it is confirmed that the bodies of all the hostages have been returned⁵.
10. 31 July 2026The Board of Peace announces that Hamas has accepted a 15-point roadmap for handing over its weapons in stages¹⁰.
11. 9 August 2026Netanyahu rejects the roadmap and demands that Hamas be disarmed before any Israeli withdrawal¹¹.

The people

Led

Benjamin Netanyahu

Mediated

Donald Trump

Proposed

Donald Trump

What the plan provides

• An immediate end to the fighting, withdrawal of Israeli forces to an agreed line, and a freeze of the battle lines until a full withdrawal in stages¹².
• Release of all the hostages, living and dead, within 72 hours; Israel releases 250 prisoners serving life sentences and 1,700 Gazans detained after 7 October 2023¹².
• Hamas has no part in governing the Strip; the Strip is demilitarised and weapons are decommissioned under independent monitoring. Hamas members who commit to peaceful coexistence receive amnesty, and those who wish to leave are given safe passage¹².
• Transitional governance: a technocratic, non-partisan Palestinian committee runs the Strip under the oversight of a "Board of Peace" chaired by Trump, until the Palestinian Authority completes its reforms¹².
• A temporary International Stabilization Force secures the borders with Israel and Egypt, trains a Palestinian police force and helps with demilitarisation. The Israeli army withdraws according to milestones linked to demilitarisation and meanwhile keeps a security perimeter¹².
• Full humanitarian aid through the United Nations and the Red Crescent; no one is forced to leave the Strip, and those who leave may return. Israel will not occupy or annex Gaza¹².
• A Palestinian state: once Palestinian Authority reform is complete and reconstruction advances, the conditions may be in place for a credible pathway to self-determination and statehood. There is no timetable and no commitment¹²⁵.

Read the document

The geography

The hard decisions

• The order of the steps is the heart of the dispute: Israel demands that Hamas be fully disarmed before it withdraws, and Hamas demands an Israeli withdrawal before it gives up its weapons¹³.
• The plan sets no date for completing the Israeli withdrawal, and Netanyahu opposes a role for the Palestinian Authority in running the Strip⁵.
• The Board of Peace is contested even among allies: no other G7 state has joined it, and the United Kingdom explained its refusal by Russia's participation and the widening of the mandate. The executive board appointed by the United States includes Tony Blair and Jared Kushner⁹.

Where accounts differ

According to The Israeli government

There will be no withdrawal until Hamas is genuinely disarmed; the arrangement under which the weapons would be stored by the Palestinian committee is unacceptable¹⁴¹¹.

According to Hamas

The organisation is willing to hand over its weapons for storage by the Palestinian committee of technocrats but rejects the term "disarmament"¹⁴, and will carry out no step unless Israel meets its obligations¹⁰.

According to China and Russia (according to Security Council Report)

The main obstacle to implementation is Israel's opposition to the 15-point roadmap¹⁵.

According to The United States (according to Security Council Report)

States should support the Board of Peace, the National Committee and the Stabilization Force¹⁵.

What changed in real life

• The living hostages returned to their families after about two years in captivity, and nearly 2,000 Palestinian prisoners and detainees were released⁵¹.
• The killing has not stopped: according to the Gaza Health Ministry, at least 1,400 Palestinians have been killed since the ceasefire, many of them women and children. Israel says its strikes targeted Hamas operatives trying to rearm. Five Israeli soldiers were killed in the same period¹⁴.
• More than 1.2 million people in the Strip still face acute hunger. Up to May an average of 227 aid trucks entered each day, against the 600 set in the plan; Israel says about 600 enter daily¹⁴.
• In the West Bank, according to Security Council Report, more than 1,600 attacks by settlers were recorded in 2026 up to mid-September, and thousands of settlement housing units were advanced¹⁵.

What remains open

• This is a ceasefire, not peace: the plan deals with Gaza and does not decide the questions of borders, Jerusalem, settlements and refugees¹². No permanent-status negotiations are under way¹⁵.
• Hamas announced on 6 July 2026 that it was dissolving its government emergency committee and transferring its powers to the committee of technocrats¹⁶ — but that committee is still outside the Strip¹⁴.
• Two elections are close: in Israel on 27 October 2026¹⁴, and for the Palestinian Legislative Council on 28 November 2026, under a decree by Mahmoud Abbas. The election law requires candidates to accept the PLO's programme, which in practice bars Hamas from taking part¹⁷.
• See also the New York Declaration, which proposed a different, international path, and the disengagement from Gaza of 2005.