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It has happened before: conflicts that became peace

Six places where people killed each other for years, and then stopped. None of them is “just like here”, and none of these peaces is perfect. But each of them was once called unsolvable.

11 min read

Before we start

It is easy to say “our case is different”, and it is true: every conflict is. But people said the same in Belfast, Johannesburg and Bogotá, until a deal was signed. Here are three cases between states and three inside divided societies: what they cost, what turned them around, what each side gave up, and what is still open.

Between states

France and Germany

France · Germany · wars 1870–1945 → reconciliation 1950–1963

The conflict
Three wars in seventy years, in the Nobel Committee's words.4
The cost
In the First World War alone about 1.36 million French and 1.77 million German soldiers were killed or died.5
The turning point
The Schuman Declaration, 9 May 1950;1 the Élysée Treaty, 22 January 1963.2
Who helped
No mediator. French foreign minister Robert Schuman proposed, and West Germany joined with four other states.1
What each side gave
Both put their coal and steel under a shared authority, so that war between them became impossible in practice too.1
What holds today
The European Union won the Nobel Peace Prize in 2012.4 Since 1963 more than 10 million young people have taken part in exchanges between the two countries.3
Still open
This is the case least like ours: reconciliation began after Germany's total defeat in 1945, not in the middle of a conflict.

Five years after the war, Schuman proposed something modest-looking: not a friendship treaty, but running two industries together.1 In 1963 Charles de Gaulle and Konrad Adenauer sealed the Élysée Treaty,2 and the Franco-German Youth Office opened the same year.3 It took eighteen years, built one meeting at a time.

Egypt and Israel

Egypt · Israel · wars 1948–1973 → peace treaty 1979

The conflict
Four wars in 25 years: 1948, 1956, 1967 and 1973.12
The cost
In the 1973 war alone 2,688 Israeli and about 7,700 Egyptian soldiers were killed, according to the Jewish Virtual Library; estimates for Egypt vary.13
The turning point
Sadat's visit to Jerusalem in 1977, Camp David in 1978 and the peace treaty of 26 March 1979.9
Who helped
The United States: Henry Kissinger in the shuttle diplomacy after 1973,14 and President Jimmy Carter, who signed as witness.9 Morocco hosted secret contacts in 1977.15
What each side gave
Israel: leaving all of Sinai, troops and civilians, within three years. Egypt: recognition, full relations and free passage through the Suez Canal and the Strait of Tiran.9
What holds today
As of October 2026 the treaty is in force. Security coordination continues, and Israeli gas covers 15 to 20 percent of Egypt's daily use.11
Still open
A “cold peace”. According to a January 2026 analysis Egypt has no ambassador in Tel Aviv,16 and Carnegie describes political paralysis since 7 October 2023.11

The road was longer than one visit. In 1971 Egypt told the UN envoy Gunnar Jarring it was ready for a peace agreement, but Israel would not commit in advance to full withdrawal, and the contacts stalled.6 After 1973 the shuttles brought disengagement agreements.7 A round in March 1975 failed, and a second interim agreement was signed that September; so records the memorial site of the diplomat Mordechai Gazit, who sat on Rabin's team.87 Then Sadat came to Jerusalem, and Begin agreed to give back all of Sinai.9 Each failed round left something for the next; see Efforts that did not ripen.

The price was heavy. On 6 October 1981 members of Egyptian Islamic Jihad assassinated Sadat; peace was one motive among several.10 The treaty survived the murder and the wars that followed, mainly as an arrangement between governments.11

Ecuador and Peru

Ecuador · Peru · war 1995 → Brasília agreement 1998

The conflict
A row over the border line in the Amazon that the 1942 Rio Protocol had not closed, and that turned into fighting in 1995.1817
The cost
We found no death toll from an authoritative source, so none is given. After the fighting about 3,000 Ecuadorian and 2,000 Peruvian troops were pulled back from the area.17
The turning point
The Itamaraty Declaration (1995) brought 112 military observers to the ground;17 the Brasília agreement was signed on 26 October 1998.18
Who helped
The four guarantor states: Brazil, Argentina, Chile and the United States. They also sent the observers.1817
What each side gave
Ecuador accepted a final border. Peru gave Ecuador one square kilometre at Tiwinza, the heart of the fighting, to own under Peruvian private law, with no sovereignty and no troops.19
What holds today
An agreed border. In 2024 Peru's foreign ministry described a relationship of trust and joint work on infrastructure, energy and trade.20
Still open
One issue stayed open: navigation rights on the Amazon.17

After the fighting 112 observers arrived and a demilitarised zone was set up.17 In January 1998 the sides set up four joint commissions to break the deadlock.17 Presidents Alberto Fujimori and Jamil Mahuad signed the deal.18 Tiwinza gave each side something to show at home: sovereignty for Peru, and for Ecuador a foothold where its soldiers had fought.19 The deal also set up a joint development fund for the border region.18

Inside divided societies

Northern Ireland

Unionists · Irish nationalists · Britain · Ireland · late 1960s to 1998 → Good Friday Agreement

The conflict
A national, religious and social conflict, in the Nobel Committee's words: should Northern Ireland stay in the UK or unite with Ireland.24
The cost
3,532 deaths between 1969 and 2001, according to the Sutton Index at Ulster University.23
The turning point
The IRA ceasefires,21 and the Agreement of 10 April 1998. In the referendums 71% in Northern Ireland and 94% in Ireland voted yes.25
Who helped
US Senator George Mitchell chaired the talks,21 alongside the British and Irish governments.26
What each side gave
Ireland dropped its constitutional claim to the whole island; Britain accepted that the majority in the North decides; republicans accepted consent and disarmament; unionists accepted power-sharing and prisoner releases.27
What holds today
The IRA finished decommissioning its arms in 2005.28 In August 2026 a power-sharing government led by Michelle O'Neill (Sinn Féin) and Emma Little-Pengelly (DUP) was in office.29
Still open
Fewer than 10% of pupils attend integrated schools, and “peace walls” still divide neighbourhoods.30

It began in secret: in April 1993 John Hume, a moderate nationalist leader, and Gerry Adams of Sinn Féin started meeting privately. The IRA ceasefire of 1994 collapsed in 1996 with a London bombing that killed two people, and Sinn Féin joined the talks only in September 1997.21 Even after the deal it was hard: in August 1998 the breakaway Real IRA murdered 29 people in Omagh, and only 52% of Protestants backed the agreement.22 Even so, deaths fell to 8 in 1999.23

South Africa

The apartheid government · the African National Congress (ANC) · 1960–1990 → election 1994

The conflict
White minority rule and racial segregation by law. The ANC was banned in 1960, and Nelson Mandela was jailed for life in 1964.34
The cost
The Truth and Reconciliation Commission heard about 21,000 victims.35 According to its report, some 14,000 people died in political violence between mid-1990 and April 1994, during the talks themselves.36
The turning point
On 2 February 1990 President F. W. de Klerk launched reform;32 on 11 February Mandela walked free;31 on 27 April 1994 everyone voted.37
Who helped
No outsider. The sides talked directly, in a multi-party forum called CODESA.32
What each side gave
The white government gave up its monopoly on power. The ANC agreed to a unity government with its rivals3837 and to conditional amnesty instead of trials: 7,112 people applied and 849 received it.35
What holds today
The vote for everyone, and a permanent constitution since 1996.38
Still open
Reparations to victims were far below what the Commission recommended, and few people were prosecuted.3539

Here too it began quietly: in 1985 Justice Minister Kobie Coetsee visited Mandela in hospital, and from there Mandela opened talks. He turned down at least three offers of conditional release.31 In 1992 de Klerk asked white voters whether to go on, and almost 69% said yes.32 The talks nearly collapsed more than once, and in April 1993 the ANC leader Chris Hani was assassinated.32 Mandela and de Klerk shared the Nobel Peace Prize in 1993.33

Colombia

The Colombian government · the FARC guerrillas · 1964–2016 → Final Agreement 2016

The conflict
A war between the state and a Marxist guerrilla force that began in 1964,43 one of the longest of modern times.40
The cost
Colombia's Truth Commission counted in 2022: 450,664 people killed between 1985 and 2018, and 7.7 million displaced.43
The turning point
Open talks from October 2012, four years in Havana,44 and the Final Agreement signed on 24 November 2016.45
Who helped
Cuba and Norway as guarantors,44 with Venezuela and Chile alongside.45
What each side gave
The FARC laid down its arms and became a legal political movement.4546 The state committed to rural reform, a more open politics and a special justice system.45
What holds today
According to Norway, more than 90% of the 13,500 signatories are keeping their commitments.44 By November 2023, 32% of the agreement's provisions were complete, according to the Kroc Institute.4748
Still open
As of July 2026: 493 former combatants have been killed since the signing, and other armed groups are still active.42

President Juan Manuel Santos started the talks, and victims' representatives from all sides took part.40 On 2 October 2016 voters rejected the deal in a referendum, 50.21% against.41 Santos did not give up: he sat down with the opponents, the text was revised, and a new version was signed on 24 November.41 In those weeks he won the Nobel Peace Prize.40 This is peace with one organisation, not the end of violence in Colombia.42

What keeps coming back

A leader who took a risk
Sadat went to Jerusalem and was assassinated four years later, partly over the peace.10 Trimble led a public of which only about half backed the deal.22 De Klerk went to a referendum.32 Santos lost a referendum and kept going.41
A third party that stays
Carter between Egypt and Israel,9 Mitchell in Northern Ireland,21 the four guarantors between Ecuador and Peru,18 Cuba and Norway in Colombia.44 According to Stephen Stedman, international involvement decides whether those trying to wreck a deal succeed.49 South Africa is the exception.32
A secret channel before the open talks
Dayan and an Egyptian envoy in Morocco in 1977,15 Hume and Adams in 1993,21 Mandela and the justice minister in 1985,31 the early contacts in Colombia.44 Oslo, too, began in 1993 in a secret channel in Norway.50
Something real for each public
Egypt got Sinai, and Israel got recognition and free passage.9 Ecuador got a foothold at Tiwinza, and Peru a final border.19 In Northern Ireland nationalists got a share of power, and unionists the principle of consent.27
Failed attempts paved the way
The Jarring contacts stalled in 19716 and the March 1975 round failed,8 yet peace with Egypt came. The IRA ceasefire collapsed in 1996,21 and the agreement came two years later. In Colombia the deal was rejected in a referendum and then revised.41 More on this: Efforts that did not ripen.
Implementation took years
IRA decommissioning was finished seven years after the deal.28 In Colombia a third of the provisions were complete after seven years.47 The Sinai withdrawal was planned from the start to take three years.9
Victims and citizens had a voice
Victims' representatives sat in the Colombian talks.40 In South Africa about 21,000 victims testified.35 In Northern Ireland the public approved the deal in a referendum.25 Here too there is a forum of more than 800 bereaved Israelis and Palestinians.51

And what is different here

Two national movements, one land
In most of the cases above there were two existing states, or one state that had to share power. Here the UN proposed two states back in 1947, and only one came into being. Palestine has been a non-member observer state at the UN since 2012.52
No agreed line to go back to
Peace with Egypt rested on a recognised international border.9 Between Israel and the Palestinians, borders, Jerusalem, refugees, settlements and security were put off in 1993 to permanent-status talks,53 and the talks of 2000 and 2001 ended without agreement.52
A state facing a people without one
In Northern Ireland two sovereign states stood behind the sides and signed the agreement.26 Here one side is a state, and the other has lived since 1967 under occupation, in the UN's words.52 That changes bargaining power, and what each side is able to promise.
One holy city
The 1947 partition plan proposed an international regime for Jerusalem, and it never happened.52 In Northern Ireland religion marks communities, but there is no single holy city that both sides see as their capital. This is the site's analysis.
More players around the table
In Colombia and South Africa the decision was mostly internal. Here the region's states are involved too, and the Arab Peace Initiative ties Israel's relations with the Arab world to a settlement with the Palestinians.54

Sources

You do not have to agree with us. That is what the sources are for: open them, compare and check for yourself.

  1. Primary European Union (european-union.europa.eu) · 9 May 1950
    Schuman Declaration, May 1950
  2. Official archive Présidence de la République française (elysee.fr) · 22 January 1963
    Signature du traité de l'Élysée, 22 janvier 1963
  3. Primary Office franco-allemand pour la Jeunesse (OFAJ / DFJW) · 2026
    OFAJ – official website
  4. Primary The Nobel Prize (nobelprize.org) · 12 October 2012
    The Nobel Peace Prize 2012 – press release (European Union)
  5. Reference Encyclopaedia Britannica
    World War I – Killed, wounded, and missing (table; source given as U.S. War Department, February 1924)
  6. Primary United Nations (UNISPAL) · 30 November 1971
    Report of the Secretary-General on the activities of the Special Representative to the Middle East (S/10403), with Jarring's aide-mémoire of 8 February 1971 and the replies of the United Arab Republic and Israel
  7. Official archive U.S. Department of State, Office of the Historian
    Shuttle Diplomacy and the Arab-Israeli Dispute, 1974–1975
  8. Official archive Mordechai Gazit memorial site (family site) · 2026
    Shuttle diplomacy, March 1975: the failed round and the road to the September 1975 interim agreement (story reproducing Ford Library and Israel State Archives documents)
  9. Primary Avalon Project, Yale Law School · 26 March 1979
    Peace Treaty between Israel and Egypt, March 26, 1979
  10. Research James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies
    Al-Jihad al-Islami (Egyptian Islamic Jihad) – profile
  11. Research Carnegie Endowment for International Peace (Sada) · 31 August 2026
    Nourhan Hefzy, Gas and Peace: Can Energy Trade Contain Egypt-Israel Conflict?
  12. Reference Encyclopaedia Britannica
    Arab-Israeli wars
  13. Reference Jewish Virtual Library
    The Yom Kippur War: Background and Overview
  14. Official archive U.S. Department of State, Office of the Historian
    The 1973 Arab-Israeli War
  15. Official archive Israel State Archives (via diplomatic-documents.org)
    "No More War": The Peace Plan of the Israeli Government and President Sadat's Journey to Jerusalem, November 1977
  16. Press The Jewish Chronicle · 7 January 2026
    Egypt is revising its peace agreement with Israel (analysis)
  17. Research Better Evidence Project, Carter School for Peace and Conflict Resolution, George Mason University
    Resolving the militarised territorial dispute between Ecuador and Peru (case study)
  18. Primary PA-X Peace Agreements Database, University of Edinburgh · 26 October 1998
    Acta Presidencial de Brasilia (Ecuador–Peru), 26 October 1998
  19. Primary PA-X Peace Agreements Database, University of Edinburgh · 26 October 1998
    Propuesta definitiva de los Países Garantes sobre la fijación en el terreno de la frontera terrestre común (Ecuador–Peru; includes the Tiwinza arrangement)
  20. Press Andina – Peru News Agency · 28 October 2024
    Peru commemorates 26th anniversary of Brasilia Peace Accords signing
  21. Research CAIN Archive, Ulster University
    The Irish Peace Process – chronology of key events, 1993–1998
  22. Reference Encyclopaedia Britannica
    Good Friday Agreement
  23. Research CAIN Archive, Ulster University
    Malcolm Sutton, An Index of Deaths from the Conflict in Ireland – deaths by year, 1969–2001
  24. Primary The Nobel Prize (nobelprize.org) · 16 October 1998
    The Nobel Peace Prize 1998 – press release (John Hume and David Trimble)
  25. Primary Government of Ireland, Department of Foreign Affairs (ireland.ie)
    About the Good Friday Agreement
  26. Primary Northern Ireland Office (GOV.UK) · 10 April 1998
    The Belfast Agreement
  27. Primary CAIN Archive, Ulster University · 10 April 1998
    The Agreement reached in the multi-party negotiations, 10 April 1998 (full text)
  28. Research CAIN Archive, Ulster University
    The Irish Peace Process – paramilitary decommissioning
  29. Primary Prime Minister's Office, 10 Downing Street (GOV.UK) · 27 August 2026
    PM meeting with First Minister Michelle O’Neill and deputy First Minister Emma Little-Pengelly of Northern Ireland: 27 August 2026
  30. Research Council on Foreign Relations
    Moving Past the Troubles: The Future of Northern Ireland Peace (backgrounder)
  31. Official archive Nelson Mandela Foundation
    Biography of Nelson Mandela
  32. Reference U.S. Library of Congress, Country Studies (text hosted at countrystudies.us)
    South Africa – Toward Democracy
  33. Primary The Nobel Prize (nobelprize.org) · 15 October 1993
    The Nobel Peace Prize 1993 – press release (Nelson Mandela and F. W. de Klerk)
  34. Primary The Nobel Prize (nobelprize.org)
    Nelson Mandela – Biographical
  35. Research United States Institute of Peace
    Truth Commission: South Africa
  36. Primary Truth and Reconciliation Commission of South Africa (text hosted by the South African History Archive / SABC) · 1998
    TRC Report, Volume 2, Chapter 7: Political Violence in the Era of Negotiations and Transition, 1990–1994
  37. Reference South African History Online
    South African general elections: 1994
  38. Primary Government of South Africa (gov.za) · 25 January 1994
    Constitution of the Republic of South Africa Act 200 of 1993 (interim constitution)
  39. Primary Department of Justice and Constitutional Development, South Africa
    Truth and Reconciliation Commission – official website
  40. Primary The Nobel Prize (nobelprize.org) · 7 October 2016
    The Nobel Peace Prize 2016 – press release (Juan Manuel Santos)
  41. Reference Peace Brigades International – Colombia · 19 January 2017
    What happened with the Peace Agreement between the government and the FARC during 2016?
  42. Research Security Council Report · July 2026
    Colombia – July 2026 Monthly Forecast
  43. Press Al Jazeera · 29 June 2022
    Colombia Truth Commission presents final report on civil conflict
  44. Primary Government of Norway (regjeringen.no)
    Norway's engagement in the peace process in Colombia
  45. Primary PA-X Peace Agreements Database, University of Edinburgh · 24 November 2016
    Final Agreement to End the Armed Conflict and Build a Stable and Lasting Peace (Colombia – FARC-EP), 24 November 2016
  46. Primary United Nations Verification Mission in Colombia
    Mandate
  47. Research University of Notre Dame (Kroc Institute for International Peace Studies) · 8 May 2024
    Kroc Institute releases eighth report on Colombian peace agreement implementation
  48. Research Peace Accords Matrix, Kroc Institute for International Peace Studies, University of Notre Dame · 13 May 2026
    Colombia Barometer reports (listing, including "Ninth Year of Implementation: Trends and Keys for the Political Transition")
  49. Research International Security 22(2); publication page at CISAC, Stanford University · 1 October 1997
    Stephen J. Stedman, Spoiler Problems in Peace Processes
  50. Official archive Government of Norway (regjeringen.no)
    Norway's involvement in the peace process in the Middle East
  51. Reference The Parents Circle – Families Forum
    About the Parents Circle – Families Forum
  52. Primary United Nations (UNISPAL)
    History of the Question of Palestine
  53. Primary PA-X Peace Agreements Database, University of Edinburgh · 13 September 1993
    Declaration of Principles on Interim Self-Government Arrangements ('Oslo Accords')
  54. Primary United Nations (UNISPAL) · 28 March 2002
    Arab Peace Initiative, Beirut summit — UN document A/56/1026–S/2002/932